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PPP criticized for gaming Ga. poll results

Democratic robopoller criticized for radically decreasing share of white vote

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Michelle Nunn

The methodology of two recent Georgia surveys by a Democratic robopoller that found Republican support sliding has drawn withering criticism for tweaking the sample’s racial composition to allegedly tilt the results.

Public Policy Polling, the high-volume automated polling firm, released a pair of surveys over the last two weeks that showed Democratic contenders for U.S. Senate and the governor’s mansion in contention with their GOP rivals.

In the Senate contest, PPP found Democrat Michelle Nunn tied at 42 percentage points with a generic Republican opponent. When matched specifically against Reps. Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey or Jack Kingston, who the pollster identified as supporting the recent 16-day government shutdown, she carved out a shocking 6-point lead.

The pollster also found Gov. Nathan Deal’s approval rating upside down and managing only a mere 4-point lead over hypothetical Democratic rival state Sen. Jason Carter.

Those numbers, whose results were commissioned by a pair of progressive advocacy groups, were far afield anything produced by other respected firms, and numbers cruncher Nate Cohn of The New Republic says he knows why: the pollster radically adjusted the racial composition of Georgia’s electorate.

Whereas the assumed white share of the electorate registered at 71 percent in an August survey of the state by the same firm, it was only 63 and 62 percent this month.

That the electorate grew precipitously more diverse in a matter months–a proposition the pollster argued would prove unlikely in the 2014 election season–speaks to the polls’ results and the pollsters’ business interests as a Democratic firm, Cohn said.

“If PPP had used the August weights for its October poll, Nunn would have trailed by 6 points. Deal would have led by 10 points if PPP used the August weights for its October poll,” Cohn wrote. “And obviously, it was in PPP’s interest to avoid both of those outcomes.”

- James Richardson

13 Comments.

  1. CaptDMO

    9 out of ten folks surveyed say….
    Because…the data
    Recent polls show….
    According to unnamed “sources”….
    On the condition of anonymity….
    In the movie…..
    Based on assumptions of unreported……..
    According to statistics compiled by…
    Disparate results prove….
    Popular actor said…
    Award winning critic cited as….
    Did (fill in the blank, hyphen, fill in the blank, question mark)
    Oooo, look….shiny!

  2. Booker underperformed his polls by five or six points. And I can’t believe spellcheck doesn’t recognize underperformed.

    • ballybunion

      Spellcheck uses a pocket dictionary. It doesn’t even recognize “spellcheck”.

  3. AD_Rtr_OS

    I’m sure ACORN/etc. can find the bodies to bus in that will make the voting tally coincide with the polling numbers.

  4. Polling should be a crime against humanity.

  5. Thucydides_of_Athens

    Commissioning and releasing an essentially fake poll to embolden your friends and demoralize your enemies is a revealing use of PSYOPS against the voting public. Look for more of this as we head towards 2016, and consider how you can fight back.

  6. David Govett

    I hear a recording start. I hang up.

  7. keith12345

    PPP was the most accurate pollster last election, and they made numerous turnout assumptions in their polls that those on the right, and those in the polling industry, harshly criticized for months… right up until the moment that PPP was proven correct by the actual election results. Given PPP’s recent track record of excellent accuracy in their polls, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt until proven otherise.

  8. jmatt55

    Let them. Liberals do not recognize the value of truth and in many cases divorce themselves from it wantonly.

    If they falsely believe they are winning, they will do nothing to correct the situation.

  9. ekaneti

    Nunn losing by 6 is about right. GA isnt trending BLUE. There would be evidence of it and there isnt. Obama did worse in GA in 2012 than in 2008. Dems think history and demography are on their sides but they have gotten way ahead of themselves. No Dem statewide has gotten more than 47% since 1998, with the exception of Thurbert Baker who ran the nonpartisan office of Labor Dept. When he ran for higher office, he got crashed. Deal has a 52-54% approval rating. That is higher than Obama in 2012. What always gets the Dems excited about GA is they have a high floor but they forget they have a low ceiling. Combine black, feminists and gays and you can get to 40-45% in GA, but no higher since 80% of GA whites are solid GOP.

  1. […] Hat tip to GeorgiaTipsheet.com for bringing the article below to my attention. […]

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    […] Polling should be a crime against […]

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