Georgia Tipsheet

Former Dollar General CEO David Perdue formally launched an exploratory effort aimed at testing the waters on a run for the retiring Saxby Chambliss’s Senate seat.

Perdue, who is also the cousin of former Governor Sonny Perdue, has been speculated upon as a likely candidate for over a month now, with onlookers calling his entry likely after he resigned his position on the Georgia Port Authority early last month. The announcement came via the launch of both a Twitter account and website. The announcement tweet can be viewed below:

Excited to announce the official launch of my US Senate exploratory committee. RT & stay tuned for updates! #gagop twitter.com/Perduesenate/s…

— David Perdue (@Perduesenate) May 14, 2013

-Brandon Howell

Blue Dog Democratic Rep. John Barrow has been coy about a possible Senate campaign, but his latest fundraising numbers show that he’s not taking the thought of seeking a promotion, or a grueling effort at re-election in his GOP-bent district, lightly.

Barrow filled his coffers with some $417,000, bringing his total to $440,000 following a multi-million dollar effort in last year’s election. That total more than doubles what he raised in the first quarter of 2011, when he was readying for a nonstop onslaught from both Republican challengers and pro-GOP outside groups.

Just over two weeks ago he huddled with donors and supporters in Atlanta to discuss the possibility of mounting a Senate campaign, marking the most public display of consideration the Blue Dog has made since Saxby Chambliss announced he wouldn’t seek a third-term. The meetings also discussed re-election prospects, should he opt against seeking statewide office.

Last November he defeated Lee Anderson handily in what was expected to be one of the closest races in the nation.

According to The Hill, “sources say he’s still undecided on a Senate bid but that he’s more likely than not to run.”

-Brandon Howell

Politico’s Morning Score is reporting that Rep. Jack Kingston will officially announce that he’s raised $841,000 in the first fundraising quarter of 2013, boosting his coffers to $1.75 million in preparation for a probable Senate bid.

The numbers are one of the clearest indicators that he is taking a serious look at entering the race, as he raised just $90,000 in the first quarter of 2012, an election year.

Kingston has all but formally announced that he intends to run for the retiring Saxby Chambliss’s seat, speaking at GOP events far removed from his coastal Georgia district since the senior senator announced his planned retirement.

Reps. Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun remain the only two formally announced candidates in the race, with Gingrey having entered the fray already packing $1.8 million on hand. Broun started with a far less substantial warchest, sitting just over $155,000.

The Politico report of Kingston’s numbers went on to state that he “plans a mid-April announcement on his decision in the race.”

Update: A press release from Kingston’s office touted the fundraising totals as some of the strongest in his career while teasing his entry into the Senate contest.

“The report is by far the strongest Kingston has posted in his time in Congress. In comparison, he raised $89,993 in the first quarter of 2011 and had $956,627 on hand,” read the release.

Kingston went on to state in the release that he “will need a strong war chest to turn back their attacks and continue our efforts to cut deficit spending, encourage economic growth, and harness America¹s energy potential.”

-Brandon Howell

New numbers regarding Georgia Governor Nathan Deal’s approval put him sufficiently above water, with 48 percent giving him a favorable mark, while 37 percent tilt the other way. Fifteen percent have no opinion.

Though some surveys have put the first-term governor’s approval rating underwater, and below 40 percent, the bulk of results this year have indicated he has strong numbers and solid footing heading into a re-election bid.

Deal’s numbers follow a week in which David Pennington, an insurance executive and Mayor of Dalton, has set a self-imposed deadline of June 1 regarding whether or not he will attempt to oust the governor.

The poll was conducted by InsiderAdvantage and on behalf of Fox 5.

That same survey put the Georgia General Assembly’s numbers slightly underwater, with 35 percent approving their job performance and 42 percent expressing disapproval.

-Brandon Howell

Reports emerging from Rep. John Barrow’s two-day Atlanta huddle with donors and supporters indicate that the Blue Dog Democrat isn’t going to shy away from his conservative-esque positions should he ultimately decide to mount a bid for U.S. Senate.

“Not if I want to win,” was Barrow’s response to that question, as reported by the AJC.

His reputation as a savvy political survivor, with formidable fundraising abilities to boot, has made him a coveted recruit in Peach State Democrats’ quest to reacquire statewide relevance, which is seen as beginning with the retiring Saxby Chambliss’s seat.

Flanked by both his pollster and head fundraiser, the AJC report indicated the sessions also examined Barrow’s continued political viability in his home district, which went solidly for Mitt Romney.

Day one was hosted by Arnall Golden Gregory, “attended by 30 people, while a far larger crowd descended the next day on Doffemyre Shields Canfield and Knowles.”

Also considering a bid is Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, though she has yet to make such an open display of consideration.

While the Republican field looks to be a wide open contest, and party leadership has already stated that they will make no efforts at preventing a free-for-all, Georgia Democrats have made clear their intent to rally behind a candidate.

State party head Mike Berlon expressed the desire for a strong gubernatorial candidate, but was clear that it comes after fielding a credible option in the Senate contest.

“What’s important is getting it right,” he stated.

Though he emphasized that point as opposed to speed, he did state that the party would prefer to have a candidate lined up by June.

-Brandon Howell

Dalton Mayor David Pennington, who’s made headlines in recent weeks for considering mounting a longshot primary challenge against Governor Nathan Deal, has set a June 1^st deadline on entering the race.

An insurance executive by tried, Pennington decried Deal’s “backing of the so-called ‘bed tax’ and his intervention in local school districts” in an interview with the AJC.

He went on to say that regardless of what state leaders said, they’ve “expanded government over the last few years.”

Pennington’s early efforts come following a year that, at one time, saw Dalton’s “metropolitan area topped the nation in job losses compared with the previous year.”

His rebuke to any such criticisms? That a mayor has little to do when it comes to the economy, be it state or national.

Prior to his AJC interview, Pennington grabbed some headlines for his appearance at Poole’s BBQ in Ellijay, a known spot for politics in North Georgia, during which he appeared to warn attendees that a second term for Governor Deal could put land a Democrat in the Governor’s Mansion come 2018.

Following that speech, Deal spokesman Brian Robinson dismissed the prospects of strong Pennington candidacy. “It’s doubtful that the mayor could even win his own county,” he said.

Deal won Whitfield County, which encompasses Dalton, with 72 percent of the vote in his 2010 contest against Democrat Roy Barnes, and 53 percent in a Republican runoff against Karen Handel.

-Brandon Howell

Following murmurings that he was looking at a campaign for the retiring Saxby Chambliss’s Senate seat, businessman David Perdue is now  reportedly resigning his post on the governing board of the Georgia Port Authority.

The move may well be a signal that the cousin of former Governor Sonny Perdue is indeed serious about making his first bid for public office.

Jim Galloway at the AJC reported that Perdue had “announced to fellow board members last week that he would be leaving,” though Governor Nathan Deal’s office reported that they had yet to receive a resignation letter.

The former CEO of Dollar General and Reebok is a resident of Sea Island, encompassed in the same coastal Georgia terrain that a campaign by Rep. Jack Kingston would call its base.

Galloway further notes the “obvious” connections to Middle Georgia he’d bring to the race, likely joined by the backing of much of the Perdue statewide network.

-Brandon Howell

A voter residing in blue dog Rep. John Barrow’s congressional district is spotlighted in the latest web advertisement from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which blasts the budget proposed by House Democratic leadership.

“My rule of thumb is that I try not to spend more than I take in,” says a 12^th district voter in the video, identified only as Julianne. “I would really like to see Congress also try to take that rule of thumb.”

The video spotlights Barrow’s heavily-targeted Georgia district along with others likely to be in play next year in Arizona and New Hampshire.

“The Americans featured in this video are demanding that Nancy Pelosi and Washington Democrats stand up for a balanced budget and a plan to spur economic growth,” stated NRCC Comms. Director Andrea Bozek.

This latest foray into Barrow’s Republican-leaning district keeps the drumbeat going for the House GOP’s campaign arm, as it has named the Blue Dog a top target in 2014. He’s been targeted in virtually every release issued in weeks since.

Barrow has gone on the record saying he doesn’t support the budget proposal from Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington State, which resulted in a slight NRCC misfire, but this video highlights the budget proposed by his party’s leadership in the House.

-Brandon Howell

As the past week alone goes to show, Blue Dog Democratic Rep. John Barrow is unlikely to stay out of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s sights from now until November 2014.

Last week he was one of just two incumbent House Democrats named in an NRCC web video hitting President Obama and members of his party over the sequester, which has now gone into place.

Today the campaign arm of Republicans in the House is launching web ads targeting Barrow and several other Democrats expected to be heavily targeted in the coming election cycle, again over the sequester.

“Because of their insistence on higher taxes and their refusal to cut wasteful spending, these Democrats are subjecting the country to irresponsible cuts,” NRCC Communications Director Andrea Bozek said according to CNN.

Specific figures regarding the scope of the buy for the web ads were not provided.

Barrow also found himself targeted by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a pro-GOP Super PAC, last week when the group launched a “paid social media search advertising” effort targeting various Democrats over potential Medicare Advantage cuts spawned by ‘Obamacare.’

News of the NRCC’s latest wave of attacks comes in the same week that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee unveiled its incumbent protection program for the 2014 cycle to Politico.

Dubbed ‘Frontline,’ the program is initially aiming to protect 26 incumbents likely to be targeted by Republican efforts in 2014.

Needless to say, the Blue Dog from Georgia’s 12^th congressional district made their list.

-Brandon Howell

George P. Bush, the son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and nephew of former President George W. Bush, is heading to the Peach State to fill his campaign coffers for a to be determined statewide campaign in Texas.

A March 5^th fundraiser, chaired by Rufus Montgomery, will be held for the 36-year old Bush at the Georgian Terrace Hotel in Atlanta, per an event invitation.

For $1,000, attendees can have their names listed as a host, with the perks of a private reception and photo-op. Half that means a grip and grin photo-op and $250 is the price of general admission.

Event co-chairs include state Senators Jeff Mullis, Josh McKoon and Butch Miller. They’re joined by names including Ashley Bell, Brad Carver and Ralph Reed.

Bush is running for statewide office in Texas, though he has yet to disclose which one.

Most watchers expect him to enter the Republican primary for the state’s powerful Land Commissioner post, but others have speculated that he may give a run for Attorney General a thought should Republican incumbent Greg Abbott decide to pursue higher office.

Bush himself has indicated his eyes are on Land Commissioner, but says a final decision won’t come until May.

The full event invite can be viewed below:

-Brandon Howell

A joint poll between Georgia-based firms Landmark Communications and Rosetta Stone Communications show Casey Cagle with an all-too-narrow lead in an unset field of potential Republican candidates who may vie to replace the retiring Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate.

The lieutenant governor edges out Rep. Phil Gingrey with 17 percent to 15 percent. Rep. Jack Kingston follows with 12 percent, edging out House colleagues Reps. Tom Price and Paul Broun, who clock in with 11 and 10 percent, respectively.

State Senator Ross Tolleson, who’s name recognition would be considerably lower coming out the gate, clocks in at fifth place with 2 percent support from those surveyed.

As was the case with recent polling data, ‘Undecided’ still rules the roost with 33 percent.

“If Lt. Governor Cagle decides to run he would initially lead the pack because he has statewide name recognition,” stated Landmark President Mark Rountree. “However we also found that, based on our poll question regarding of his job approval, voters don’t know as much about him beyond name recognition. That’s normal for a down ticket elected official.”

John Garst, who heads Rosetta Stone Communications, noted that Price leads the pack amongst Metro Atlanta voters, though the media release did not specify by what margin.

Following initial reports that he had put a poll in the field to test his viability, Cagle’s camp has been virtually silent on whether or not he intended to launch a bid for the open seat.

The lieutenant governor himself recently told the AJC that his focus was on the current session of the Georgia General Assembly, saying that his plate is “full right now.”

To date, Rep. Paul Broun remains the only formally announced candidate in the still-developing primary field.

Multiple outlets recently reported that Gingrey is set on mounting a statewide campaign and Kingston told a gathering of Forsyth County Republicans that his intentions were to pursue the seat, though he stopped short of a formal announcement.

Price, who was an oft-rumored potential primary opponent for Chambliss, was expected to be one of the first announced candidates but has opted to instead delay his decision until May.

-Brandon Howell

One day after getting a shoutout from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in the group’s latest video, Blue Dog Democratic Rep. John Barrow is today being targeted by a pro-GOP Super PAC.

The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), which operates to maintain and expand the current House GOP majority, included Barrow as one of the eleven Democrats targeted in its latest effort.

According to write-up by The Hill, the digital-based campaign will use “paid social media and search advertising” to hit the eleven Democrats over “potential cuts to Medicare Advantage.”

“Democrats infamously promised that if you liked your healthcare plan, you could keep it under Obamacare,” stated the group’s Communications Director, Dan Conston, in a press release emailed to the Tipsheet.

“Now with millions of seniors likely forced off plans it’s becoming painfully clear President Obama and Congressman Barrow have broken their promise. Seniors deserve an explanation from Congressman Barrow why his healthcare bill is hurting them and breaking its promise.”

The Associated Press recently reported that Medicare Advantage could possibly face “steeper than expected” cuts to maintain funding, and the Health and Human Services Department proposed a 2.2 percent payment cut, which is set for finalization in April.

This marks the second time that the CLF has targeted Democrats over the issue.

Though he voted against the original law twice, once in 2009 and again in 2010, Barrow has voted against Republican-led efforts at repealing the controversial healthcare law, citing his preference for dismantling certain portions of the law instead of what he dubbed the “all or nothing proposition” of full repeal.

-Brandon Howell

Weeks after naming him one of their top targets in 2014, an unsurprising move, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has Blue Dog Democrat Rep. John Barrow back in its sights over the looming sequester, set to go into effect this Friday barring an alternative.

In a web video invoking satire of last night’s Academy Awards, the group derides the 12^th District representative for an “award winning role in Obama’s sequester.”

Barrow and Rep. Nick Rahall join Nancy Pelosi as the only House Democrats mentioned by name in the NRCC’s video.

The Blue Dog congressman has been a vocal critic of sequestration, arguing that the across the board cuts would wreck havoc on military bases in his South Georgia congressional district.

Two weeks ago he proposed bringing back the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, dubbed the ‘Super Committee’ to find alternative spending cuts.

“Given our general agreement on the negative impact of the sequester, it’s an embarrassment that we’ve not been able to find a suitable alternative in the year and a half we’ve known it was coming. I still believe we can find savings to replace the sequester in a smarter way by working together to first target areas of excess, duplication, and waste and then have a discussion about our priorities,” read his letter to House leadership on both sides of the aisle.

The full video from the NRCC can be viewed below.

-Brandon Howell

Multiple reports indicate that Congressman Phil Gingrey is set to enter the race for the open Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Saxby Chambliss.

“Two strategists with knowledge of Gingrey’s plans on Thursday told The Washington Post the congressman is, for all intents and purposes, a candidate for Senate,” read the report from the Post.

That news came hours after a separate piece from The Hill indicated as much. Tom Perdue, a Georgia consultant who has long been a part of Senator Chambliss’s inner circle, told The Hill that Gingrey was making the rounds on phone calls, “telling them he’s going to run and his staff is telling people he’ll probably make his announcement sometime next week.”

His entry would make him the second official candidate in the contest, following Rep. Paul Broun.

Rep. Jack Kingston told a gathering of Forsyth County Republicans last Saturday that his plans are to pursue the seat, but no official announcement has been made.

Ethan Underwood, who chairs the Forsyth County GOP, later told Tipsheet that “Rep. Kingston said he is not officially announcing his candidacy, but that he plans to seek the Republican nomination.”

Gingrey spokeswoman Jen Talaber pushed back on the assertion that her boss is 100 percent set on seeking Chambliss’s seat.

“I spoke with Phil and he hasn’t sent any email indicating a Senate run, so I’m not sure what all of this is about,” she told The Hill.

Perhaps of note is the fact that Gingrey spoke to the University of Georgia’s College Republicans chapter on Wednesday, far removed from his district. Though nowhere near the site for making an official announcement, the hotbed of conservative activism is a likely stop for any would-be candidate looking to recruit volunteers.

-Brandon Howell

The latest numbers in the still-forming GOP primary contest to replace Saxby Chambliss, released today by Public Policy Polling (PPP), show Rep. Jack Kingston tied with former Secretary of State Karen Handel at 15 percent. Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle is just behind with 13 percent, followed by Reps. Phil Gingrey at 12, Paul Broun at 11, Tom Price at 10 and Tom Graves at 3.

Undecided leads the field with 20 percent.

Broun remains the only formally announced entrant, with Kingston having stated he intends to pursue the seat yet stopping short of an official announcement last Saturday.

Tom Price, once thought of as an all but certain entrant into the field, recently announced that he would be delaying a decision until May. The move has prompted some quarters to question whether or not he still intends to mount a bid.

After word initially spread that his camp had put a poll in the field to test his viability in the contest, Cagle has largely been silent on any potential interest in replacing Chambliss, saying his focus was on his role presiding over the state Senate. Gingrey has stated that he is taking a hard look at the contest, while Graves has express no interest in moving to a statewide bid following his election to Congress in 2010.

Most also consider it unlikely that Handel and Price would find themselves in the same field. Without Handel in the field, PPP’s poll showed that Phil Gingrey would lead Kingston 24-18 percent, followed by 15 percent of respondents backing Broun and 14 percent choosing Price.

On the other hand, Handel would trail Gingrey by 1 percent, 22-21, with Kingston again at 18 percent and Broun at 14.

The survey of 602 Georgia voters and 366 GOP primary voters did not test hypothetical matchups in a Democratic primary. However, three names were tested against Republicans Price, Kingston, Gingrey, Broun and Handel.

Former Senator Max Cleland appears to be the most formidable in a General Election, “up 1 against Price, 3 against Kingston, 5 against Gingrey, and 7 against Broun and Handel.” He was defeated by the retiring Chambliss in 2002, but has given no indication that he intends to return to the public eye as a candidate for office.

Barrow would start out leading both Gingrey and Handel by a single percentage point whilst deadlocked with Broun and on the flip side of that single point against Price. In a duel of South Georgians, Barrow would trail Kingston by 3 percentage points.

The Blue Dog congressman has previously stated that he has “no plans” to move to a statewide contest. His congressional seat has already been named as one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s top targets for 2014.

State Senator Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, would begin trailing any Republican opponent by an average of 3.8 percentage points, trailing Broun by just 2 and Kingston by a more substantial 6.

Carter, too, has given no indication that he plans to pursue the seat.

-Brandon Howell