Georgia Tipsheet

Out of the frying pan, into the fire.

House Republicans wasted no time in reassuring Georgia Rep. John Barrow that he remains a top-ten turnover target, warning the conservative Democrat Thursday that his decision not to run for Senate means they will devote considerable party resources to finally bouncing him from office.

Until Tuesday, when Barrow made the surprise announcement he would seek reelection to the House, it appeared increasingly likely the blue dog would finally do for Republicans what they’ve proven unable despite millions in outside spending and successive redistricting efforts: eliminate the lone white House Democrat from the Deep South.

But the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House GOPers, showed new resolve in its efforts to defeat Barrow on Thursday with the launch of its Red Zone program.

The new initiative will focus exclusively on defeating 7 vulnerable Democrats, Barrow included, in the coming election.

“It’s not a secret that we’ve gone after these guys, and they keep finding ways to elude us even if they’re in conservative districts,” Annie Kelly, a top shelf GOP operative steering the program, told Politico. “We’re starting early and putting these guys on notice that just because they’ve gotten away doesn’t mean we’re giving up.”

In a statement, a NRCC spokeswoman said Kelly will “have a dedicated staff” whose sole focus will be forcing a turnover in Georgia’s twelfth congressional district.

Other Red Zone targets include: Ann Kirkpatrick and Ron Barber of Arizona, Mike McIntyre of North Carolina, Nick Rahall of West Virginia, and Collin Peterson of Minnesota.

- James Richardson

Democrat Michelle Nunn would fare better against Republican Rep. Jack Kingston in a general election match-up than blue dog Rep. John Barrow, according to an internal Democratic survey.

The Wednesday release of the 800-person survey, fielded in March by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, comes amid concerns that Democrats had lost a rare southern pickup opportunity in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race with the news that Barrow would seek reelection to the House over a possible promotion to the upper chamber.

The poll, obtained first by Politico, found Nunn trailing Kingston by a slim one-point margin, 33 percent to 32 percent, while Barrow would enter the November contest down four.

But the data, released in the hopes of pacifying misgivings among donors that Nunn is a weaker candidate than Barrow, also makes clear whom Democrats consider the most likely Republican nominee and greatest threat: Kingston.

The GOP field currently stands at three, all congressman with national profiles, and could swell to as many as five in the coming weeks, but the poll assumed that Kingston would clinch the nod.

- James Richardson

Ominous. That’s how Georgia Republicans described Mark Sanford’s surprise victory Tuesday over Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in the special election to fill South Carolina’s vacant first congressional district.

The nine-point win by Sanford, the disgraced former governor whose personal baggage was thought by many to be too great a liability to overcome as he campaigned for his old House seat, has both everything and yet nothing to do with Peach State politics.

Most Georgians only became familiar with Sanford as the unseemly details of his extramarital affair unfolded on cable news programs, but it was the inability of his rival, a political newcomer whose cachet was primarily grounded in her success in the business and not-for-profit sectors, to connect with voters that Republicans say signals bad news for Democratic chances in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race next year.

Left to cope without the party’s top possible recruit, conservative Democratic Rep. John Barrow, who announced he would seek reelection to the House over a Senate bid, Georgia Democrats are now poised to nominate their own Colbert Busch: Michelle Nunn, a prominent nonprofit strategist who boasts a gilded surname in these parts.

Nunn’s father, Sam, once held the Senate seat up for grabs in next year’s race, but she claims no personal experience in the political arena and, like the Colbert Busch experiment, would likely pitch voters a technocratic vision of public service.

But Republicans say that formula has already been tested by voters whose conservative orientation closely mirrors the public sentiment found in Georgia.

“Michelle Nunn’s campaign is a nonstarter,” one Republican commented to Tipsheet. “Georgia voters are savvy enough to recognize that she’s a cardboard retread of Elizabeth Colbert Busch, only our sad version doesn’t pack the same late night comedy punch. After tonight, Democrats would have to be dumber than a sack of hammers to be excited about a Nunn candidacy.”

- James Richardson

The campaign arm of Senate Democrats said Tuesday it remained “confident” the ultimate nominee in Georgia’s open Senate contest would offer voters a compelling alternative to the Republican candidate, even as it declined to say if it would invest in the race.

The shock decision Tuesday by U.S. Rep. John Barrow not to run for Senate left national Democrats without their top choice for the race, but the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee nonetheless struck an upbeat chord.

“The divisive Republican primary is certain to produce a nominee that is too extreme for mainstream Georgians,” DSCC spokesman Justin Barasky told Tipsheet. “We are confident that we will have a strong candidate that will excite Democrats and provide independents and moderate Republicans with a strong, reasonable alternative to the extremism from Republicans.”

The DSCC had previously signaled an apparent readiness to invest in the race, but demurred when asked Tuesday if it was still willing to direct precious party resources to Georgia. (President Barack Obama will visit the state later this month and will raise funds for the committee.)

Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who had been readying its assault on Barrow, said the Peach State episode represented their Democratic counterpart’s “biggest recruiting failure” of the cycle.

“Barrow’s decision is the biggest recruiting failure of the 2014 cycle and ensures Republicans remain on offense across the map,” NRSC communications director Brad Dayspring said in an email. “Democrats in Washington threw everything at Barrow, who realized the sweat was unwinnable and left the [DSCC] standing at the alter.”

UPDATE: After Senate Republicans began highlighting on Twitter the DSCC’s initial refusal to comment on the committee’s resource allocation plans for Georgia, a spokesman reiterated that it still believes the state is fertile ground for a pick-up and would invest appropriately.

“We will be absolutely investing in the Georgia Senate race,” Barasky said, “it remains one of our top pickup opportunities.”

- James Richardson

Believing their ability to win Georgia’s open U.S. Senate seat next year is predicated on dodging a costly and divisive nominating contest, Democratic leaders have begun quietly working to anoint a consensus candidate, multiple party donors and operatives say.

U.S. Rep. John Barrow, the coastal blue dog who has thwarted consecutive Republican efforts to bounce him from Congress, and Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Sen. Sam Sunn, are both actively evaluating primary bids, but the potential for a bruising intraparty bout has party leaders concerned.

“We had too many incidences when we’ve run Democrats against each other, spent a lot of money and then had nothing to show for it,” Georgia Democratic Party Chairman Mike Berlon told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “If you’re the party on the rise like we are, resources aren’t plentiful. We have to do more with less and make sure we have the right candidates.”

Barrow and Nunn are expected to meet in the coming weeks to discuss the race, though it is widely believed among Peach State insiders that national Democrats would prefer Nunn yield to Barrow, whom they regard as a tested and known quanity.

“Nunn is political royalty in Georgia, there’s no denying it, but her father’s coattails can only drag her campaign so far,” one Democratic operative who asked to remain anonymous told Tipsheet. “Democrats need someone who has been in the trenches, with a track record of foiling GOP attacks. That’s not Michelle Nunn.”

But even if Nunn can be dissuaded from running, Democrats’ unity effort may be spoiled by one of their own, a retread who has since long fallen from grace with party eminences but nonetheless remains popular with African Americans, a critical demographic if the party hopes to build a winning state coalition.

Vernon Jones, the former DeKalb chief executive who narrowly lost the the Democratic Senate nomination in 2008, has hinted he may again pursue the seat, whether or not party bigs want him.

“There’s gonna’ be a battle in 2014,” Jones said. “My powder is dry, my musket is clean and I have a satchel full of bullets. And I’m not gonna’ shoot until I see the white of their eyes. Stay tuned.”

One Washington Democratic consultant with whom Tipsheet spoke said the margin for Nunn yielding to Barrow diminishes considerably if Jones launches a campaign.

“Democrats are delusional if they think Michelle would stand down to clear a field that isn’t clear,” the consultant said by email.

- James Richardson

Blue Dog Democratic Rep. John Barrow has been coy about a possible Senate campaign, but his latest fundraising numbers show that he’s not taking the thought of seeking a promotion, or a grueling effort at re-election in his GOP-bent district, lightly.

Barrow filled his coffers with some $417,000, bringing his total to $440,000 following a multi-million dollar effort in last year’s election. That total more than doubles what he raised in the first quarter of 2011, when he was readying for a nonstop onslaught from both Republican challengers and pro-GOP outside groups.

Just over two weeks ago he huddled with donors and supporters in Atlanta to discuss the possibility of mounting a Senate campaign, marking the most public display of consideration the Blue Dog has made since Saxby Chambliss announced he wouldn’t seek a third-term. The meetings also discussed re-election prospects, should he opt against seeking statewide office.

Last November he defeated Lee Anderson handily in what was expected to be one of the closest races in the nation.

According to The Hill, “sources say he’s still undecided on a Senate bid but that he’s more likely than not to run.”

-Brandon Howell

The campaign arm of House Republicans may be doing more than anyone else to prod Georgia Democratic Rep. John Barrow to pursue the U.S. Senate seat to be left vacant next year by retiring Rep. Saxby Chambliss.

Barrow, a conservative Democrat who has repeatedly foiled state and national GOP efforts to unseat him, recently signaled an interest in the Senate race, even holding invitation-only listening sessions with donors while on recess in Atlanta.

By attacking him early and often, the National Republican Congressional Committee seems to have reconciled itself to Barrow’s maddening perseverance and is simply ready to see him become someone else’s problem.

The NRCC unveiled on Monday a television advertisement attacking the Georgian for his votes against Republican budget proposals and unsuccessful efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

A spokeswoman was unable to specify how much was spent on the ad, but said it would run “multiple times” throughout Barrow’s district during the nearby Masters Tournament.

Not a week goes by where the committee doesn’t release at least one statement attacking the congressman as a do-nothing liberal, but the transition to television–a far more expensive medium than online ads–marks something of an escalation.

Should Barrow choose to remain in the House, his next election is twenty months out. The contest is so far removed that no local Republicans have even made overtures for it.

“Who can blame them for wanting Barrow out of their hair?” one top Georgia Republican strategist told Tipsheet. “They’ve made the calculation, and I think it’s the right one, that if they can dupe him into thinking the grass is greener on the Senate side, then Republicans finally have a chance of getting him out of office.

UPDATE: A Democrat who closely watches local media buys says the spot is slated to run only run this Sunday on a single local broadcast station, Augusta CBS affiliate WRDW, and estimates the expenditure ran no more than $3,000.

Because the tournament, which runs Thursday to Sunday, has reserved all air time for sponsors during hours of play, the source said, the ad can only run in the early morning or evening Sunday.

- James Richardson

Reports emerging from Rep. John Barrow’s two-day Atlanta huddle with donors and supporters indicate that the Blue Dog Democrat isn’t going to shy away from his conservative-esque positions should he ultimately decide to mount a bid for U.S. Senate.

“Not if I want to win,” was Barrow’s response to that question, as reported by the AJC.

His reputation as a savvy political survivor, with formidable fundraising abilities to boot, has made him a coveted recruit in Peach State Democrats’ quest to reacquire statewide relevance, which is seen as beginning with the retiring Saxby Chambliss’s seat.

Flanked by both his pollster and head fundraiser, the AJC report indicated the sessions also examined Barrow’s continued political viability in his home district, which went solidly for Mitt Romney.

Day one was hosted by Arnall Golden Gregory, “attended by 30 people, while a far larger crowd descended the next day on Doffemyre Shields Canfield and Knowles.”

Also considering a bid is Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, though she has yet to make such an open display of consideration.

While the Republican field looks to be a wide open contest, and party leadership has already stated that they will make no efforts at preventing a free-for-all, Georgia Democrats have made clear their intent to rally behind a candidate.

State party head Mike Berlon expressed the desire for a strong gubernatorial candidate, but was clear that it comes after fielding a credible option in the Senate contest.

“What’s important is getting it right,” he stated.

Though he emphasized that point as opposed to speed, he did state that the party would prefer to have a candidate lined up by June.

-Brandon Howell

The teenage son of U.S. Rep. John Barrow was arrested Friday in Athens for underage drinking after he caused a disturbance at his mother’s veterinary clinic.

The Friday arrest was the second time in three months that James Barrow, 18, has seriously run afoul of the law.

He was also charged in January with driving under the influence of drugs and simple possession of marijuana, both misdemeanors, after an officer spotted him driving erratically in the early morning hours outside the University of Georgia.

But the Georgia lawmaker, who signaled this week he was considering pursing the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, isn’t the only congressional parent whose children’s toothy-grinned mugshots have generated political headaches. Or, for that matter, the lone possible Georgia Senate candidate.

Paul Collins Broun III, the then-19-year-old son of Rep. Paul Broun, was arrested in 2010 for a series of charges similar to the young Barrow: driving under the influence of drugs and a handful of minor traffic infractions. A year later, he was again arrested for driving with a suspended license only hours after he was bonded out of jail.

Elsewhere, the 23-year-old son of Virginia Rep. Patrick Moran was arrested in December last year for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend outside a bar and the 19-year-old son of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was pinched for underage drinking, disorderly conduct and allegedly using physical force with a female flight attendant.

Barrow’s congressional office declined to comment.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is celebrating the third anniversary of the passage of the Affordable Care Act much the same way it passes any day in which the sun rises in the east: attacking John Barrow.

It also inadvertently redistricted the blue dog to a state on the opposite end of the county.

“With the third anniversary of President Obama’s infamous health care law right around the corner, New York’s hard-working families are wondering — does John Barrow still support ObamaCare?” a hastily-proofed Friday afternoon press release reads.

In truth, New Yorkers probably couldn’t pick Barrow out of a lineup of seersuckered southerners.

Similar releases targeted a dozen other vulnerable Democratic incumbents, including New York’s Tim Bishop, whose home state wasn’t scrubbed before his southern colleague’s name was substituted.

President Obama signed the legislation, which the U.S. Supreme Court largely upheld last session, into law on Mar. 23, 2010.

- James Richardson

A voter residing in blue dog Rep. John Barrow’s congressional district is spotlighted in the latest web advertisement from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which blasts the budget proposed by House Democratic leadership.

“My rule of thumb is that I try not to spend more than I take in,” says a 12^th district voter in the video, identified only as Julianne. “I would really like to see Congress also try to take that rule of thumb.”

The video spotlights Barrow’s heavily-targeted Georgia district along with others likely to be in play next year in Arizona and New Hampshire.

“The Americans featured in this video are demanding that Nancy Pelosi and Washington Democrats stand up for a balanced budget and a plan to spur economic growth,” stated NRCC Comms. Director Andrea Bozek.

This latest foray into Barrow’s Republican-leaning district keeps the drumbeat going for the House GOP’s campaign arm, as it has named the Blue Dog a top target in 2014. He’s been targeted in virtually every release issued in weeks since.

Barrow has gone on the record saying he doesn’t support the budget proposal from Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington State, which resulted in a slight NRCC misfire, but this video highlights the budget proposed by his party’s leadership in the House.

-Brandon Howell

U.S. Rep. John Barrow said federal lawmakers “hide behind” a constitutional amendment that bars them from varying their current salaries, so the Georgia Democrat introduced on Wednesday new legislation that would tweak the law to allow for immediate reductions in congressional pay.

“Folks in Washington hide behind the 27th Amendment as a way to keep their salaries, so let’s fix it,” Barrow said in a statement Wednesday.

The 27th Amendment, which was submitted to the states for ratification in 1789 but not adopted until 1992, prevents the legislative branch from awarding itself a pay raise that would take effect until a new Congress convenes.

The measure was first proposed by James Madison to prevent abuse, but Barrow said fellow lawmakers now believe that the obscure amendment has exempted them from penalties for poor performance, like failing to avert sequestration.

“Congress has a long history of failing to do its job, most recently in an effort to find responsible spending cuts,” he said. “When folks in Georgia and across their country can’t do their job, they’re penalized. Members of Congress should be held to the same standard.”

Barrow’s office said the proposed bill is a necessary precursor to passing a “legitimate ‘No Budget, No Pay’” act, a subtle swipe at the GOP-sponsored law that would temporarily withhold member paychecks in escrow if Congress has not passed a budget resolution for the upcoming fiscal year within the next month.

Barrow’s amendment tweak, an aide said, would allow for actual pay withholding.

At present, no other lawmakers, Republicans or Democrats, have signed onto the proposed change.

- James Richardson

As the past week alone goes to show, Blue Dog Democratic Rep. John Barrow is unlikely to stay out of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s sights from now until November 2014.

Last week he was one of just two incumbent House Democrats named in an NRCC web video hitting President Obama and members of his party over the sequester, which has now gone into place.

Today the campaign arm of Republicans in the House is launching web ads targeting Barrow and several other Democrats expected to be heavily targeted in the coming election cycle, again over the sequester.

“Because of their insistence on higher taxes and their refusal to cut wasteful spending, these Democrats are subjecting the country to irresponsible cuts,” NRCC Communications Director Andrea Bozek said according to CNN.

Specific figures regarding the scope of the buy for the web ads were not provided.

Barrow also found himself targeted by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a pro-GOP Super PAC, last week when the group launched a “paid social media search advertising” effort targeting various Democrats over potential Medicare Advantage cuts spawned by ‘Obamacare.’

News of the NRCC’s latest wave of attacks comes in the same week that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee unveiled its incumbent protection program for the 2014 cycle to Politico.

Dubbed ‘Frontline,’ the program is initially aiming to protect 26 incumbents likely to be targeted by Republican efforts in 2014.

Needless to say, the Blue Dog from Georgia’s 12^th congressional district made their list.

-Brandon Howell

One day after getting a shoutout from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in the group’s latest video, Blue Dog Democratic Rep. John Barrow is today being targeted by a pro-GOP Super PAC.

The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), which operates to maintain and expand the current House GOP majority, included Barrow as one of the eleven Democrats targeted in its latest effort.

According to write-up by The Hill, the digital-based campaign will use “paid social media and search advertising” to hit the eleven Democrats over “potential cuts to Medicare Advantage.”

“Democrats infamously promised that if you liked your healthcare plan, you could keep it under Obamacare,” stated the group’s Communications Director, Dan Conston, in a press release emailed to the Tipsheet.

“Now with millions of seniors likely forced off plans it’s becoming painfully clear President Obama and Congressman Barrow have broken their promise. Seniors deserve an explanation from Congressman Barrow why his healthcare bill is hurting them and breaking its promise.”

The Associated Press recently reported that Medicare Advantage could possibly face “steeper than expected” cuts to maintain funding, and the Health and Human Services Department proposed a 2.2 percent payment cut, which is set for finalization in April.

This marks the second time that the CLF has targeted Democrats over the issue.

Though he voted against the original law twice, once in 2009 and again in 2010, Barrow has voted against Republican-led efforts at repealing the controversial healthcare law, citing his preference for dismantling certain portions of the law instead of what he dubbed the “all or nothing proposition” of full repeal.

-Brandon Howell

Weeks after naming him one of their top targets in 2014, an unsurprising move, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has Blue Dog Democrat Rep. John Barrow back in its sights over the looming sequester, set to go into effect this Friday barring an alternative.

In a web video invoking satire of last night’s Academy Awards, the group derides the 12^th District representative for an “award winning role in Obama’s sequester.”

Barrow and Rep. Nick Rahall join Nancy Pelosi as the only House Democrats mentioned by name in the NRCC’s video.

The Blue Dog congressman has been a vocal critic of sequestration, arguing that the across the board cuts would wreck havoc on military bases in his South Georgia congressional district.

Two weeks ago he proposed bringing back the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, dubbed the ‘Super Committee’ to find alternative spending cuts.

“Given our general agreement on the negative impact of the sequester, it’s an embarrassment that we’ve not been able to find a suitable alternative in the year and a half we’ve known it was coming. I still believe we can find savings to replace the sequester in a smarter way by working together to first target areas of excess, duplication, and waste and then have a discussion about our priorities,” read his letter to House leadership on both sides of the aisle.

The full video from the NRCC can be viewed below.

-Brandon Howell