Georgia Tipsheet

Rep. Tom Price offered his first thoughts since passing on a campaign for Georgia’s open Senate seat, predicting his three House colleagues who’ve thrown their hat in the ring might run into some trouble.

“I think the folks who are running from the House will have a bit of a challenge because … the popularity of Congress isn’t at an all-time high,” the Republican told The Daily Caller. ““So I think they will have a challenge getting over that hurdle. They also will have a significant voting record that they will have to answer to. And for those outside, it becomes an easier thing to target.”

Four candidates have formally announced for the seat, including Price’s fellow House members Reps. Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, and Jack Kingston. They’re joined by former Secretary of State, and 2010 gubernatorial candidate, Karen Handel.

Former Dollar General CEO David Perdue has launched an exploratory effort, stopping just short of officially entering the race.

Price himself was considered a potential candidate for the seat, even before Chambliss announced his retirement. He ultimately opted against a bid last month, choosing to remain in the House where he serves as Vice-Chairman of the Budget Committee.

As for whether or not he would endorse in the primary, Price simply said “maybe.”

He was the lone member of the state’s Republican congressional delegation to back Handel over now-Governor Nathan Deal in the 2010 primary.

-Brandon Howell

Speculation that Rep. Tom Price would pursue Georgia’s Republican Senate nomination has faded, a grand possibility whose luster wore quickly among party financiers in part for the same reason it once glimmered: his restrained profile that comforted activists and yet didn’t spook the establishment.

Price has said he would make no final determination on the contest until May–news that left many top GOP operatives and donors confident he would remain in the House, where he’s carved a comfortable niche as a top budget lieutenant to Rep. Paul Ryan–but the congressman signaled Monday he isn’t ready to be counted out, at least where the counting of campaign cash is concerned.

More than $2.1 million in cash reserves sat in Price’s House account, the entirety of which could be applied to a Senate race, by the end of the first quarter, an aide said Monday.

A statement under Price’s campaign letterhead said it was the congressman’s “highest non-election year” fundraising period ever recorded. Price also reiterated his intentions to delay a decision on the primary.

“Public service is a sacred trust and I take seriously my responsibility to serve the people of the Sixth District…,” he said in a press release. “For the time being, my focus remains on my duties in the House as Betty and I continue to weigh any future potential candidacy as Georgia’s conservative voice.

Whether those numbers will slow the operative and donor egress to rival camps is unknown, but that cash reserves teased was nearly 20 percent greater than what another top possible GOP recruit, Rep. Jack Kingston, reported last week. Neither of the announced candidates, Reps. Phil Gingrey or Paul Broun, have yet disclosed their fundraising activities.

A Price spokeswoman did not immediately provide additional details about the congressman’s fundraising report and his disclosure has not yet been published by the FEC.

- James Richardson

Politico’s Morning Score is reporting that Rep. Jack Kingston will officially announce that he’s raised $841,000 in the first fundraising quarter of 2013, boosting his coffers to $1.75 million in preparation for a probable Senate bid.

The numbers are one of the clearest indicators that he is taking a serious look at entering the race, as he raised just $90,000 in the first quarter of 2012, an election year.

Kingston has all but formally announced that he intends to run for the retiring Saxby Chambliss’s seat, speaking at GOP events far removed from his coastal Georgia district since the senior senator announced his planned retirement.

Reps. Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun remain the only two formally announced candidates in the race, with Gingrey having entered the fray already packing $1.8 million on hand. Broun started with a far less substantial warchest, sitting just over $155,000.

The Politico report of Kingston’s numbers went on to state that he “plans a mid-April announcement on his decision in the race.”

Update: A press release from Kingston’s office touted the fundraising totals as some of the strongest in his career while teasing his entry into the Senate contest.

“The report is by far the strongest Kingston has posted in his time in Congress. In comparison, he raised $89,993 in the first quarter of 2011 and had $956,627 on hand,” read the release.

Kingston went on to state in the release that he “will need a strong war chest to turn back their attacks and continue our efforts to cut deficit spending, encourage economic growth, and harness America¹s energy potential.”

-Brandon Howell

U.S. Rep. Phil Gingrey will formally announce a bid for Georgia’s Republican Senate nomination to replace retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss, a well-placed GOP strategist has confirmed.

A Republican with knowledge of Gingrey’s plans told Tipsheet the congressman, now in his sixth term in the House, would file a federal statement of candidacy Wednesday to run for Senate.

The Marietta Republican will chase the paperwork with a pair of kickoff events in Atlanta and Augusta, the first measure of how well the 70-year-old lawmaker will endure the physical rigors of a long primary.

Gingrey will be only the second candidate to enter the Republican contest, still 16 months out, and square off with outspoken conservative Rep. Paul Broun. Other possible GOP recruits include Reps. Jack Kingston and Tom Price.

Whatever the final composition, the primary will be a closely-watched affair by national Republicans concerned with the race’s more and most conservative dynamic.

The rightward drag was apparent last week when the once-uniform Georgia delegation frayed over the budget proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin wonk who Republicans nominated last year as vice president.

Days before the vote, Broun argued the budget was insufficiently conservative, even as Democrats complained it was maniacally austere. At the same time, Gingrey praised the proposal for reducing spending and reforming entitlement programs.

But when a vote was called by House leadership, Broun was not the lone Georgia dissenter. Gingrey, too, voted against the measure, later saying he found it unacceptable because it did not defund the Affordable Care Act. Both Price and Kingston voted for the bill.

Asked whether his vote may have been informed by the position of a likely rival, Gingrey’s spokeswoman said the congressman “has been consistently conservative in his voting record, regardless of how Paul Broun or anyone else votes.”

Whether his right flank is vulnerable to an attack by Broun or not, Gingrey will have the resources to wage an aggressive campaign with a robust television component, campaign sources say.

According to the most recent federal campaign filings, Gingrey’s war chest is fully twelve times larger than what Broun has amassed. While Broun must initially scrape by with little more than $155,000, Gingrey has banked north of $1.8 million.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution first reported of Gingrey’s intention to announce.

- James Richardson

A pair of Georgia Republican congressmen eying the state’s open U.S. Senate seat broke rank and voted on Thursday against the budget proposed by Rep. Paul Broun, criticizing the measure as insufficiently conservative even as national Democrats attacked it as maniacally austere.

The Ryan budget, which would eliminate the federal deficit in ten years, narrowly passed the House on a largely party-line vote Thursday. No Democrats voted for the proposal, but Georgians Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun joined eight other conservatives in opposing it.

The two lawmakers said they believe Ryan’s framework did not cut government spending as sharply as needed.

Gingrey, though a spokeswoman, told Tipsheet he voted against the proposal because it did not address the “enormous” taxes included the president’s health care reforms.

“As we mark the third anniversary of the health care law, small business owners, families and patients are beginning to feel its impact. Obamacare is bad fiscal policy, a nightmare for patients, and a drag on the economy,” Gingrey, an obstetrician from Marietta, said. “Based on this grim reality, I have opposed the continuing resolution because it does not defund Obamacare and — consistent with this position — I voted against the Ryan budget because it left the enormous Obamacare taxes in place.”

Broun, also a physician, had previously telegraphed his opposition to the Ryan plan in the opinion pages of the New York Times, a move that most GOP observers believe manifested Gingrey’s rightward lurch.

But Ryan was not without his boosters from the pool of potential Republican Senate recruits.

Both Reps. Tom Price, who serves as Ryan’s deputy in the Budget Committee, and Jack Kingston supported the proposal, which the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said “proves just how wrong they are for Georgia.”

“Today, Tom Price and Jack Kingston again embraced an extreme budget that would have disastrous consequences for Georgia seniors, students and middle class families,” DSCC Press Secretary Justin Barasky said in a statement.

The statement made no mention of Broun or Gingrey’s opposition–that’s an attack better suited to a splashier medium, like television–though it is the first time Senate Democrats have devoted resources to handicapping a potential run by Price.

Price was long expected to pursue Georgia’s Senate contest but speculation had decidedly cooled in recent weeks until Monday, when he huddled with senior officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee to discuss a possible campaign.

Consider him back on the radar.

- James Richardson

A joint poll between Georgia-based firms Landmark Communications and Rosetta Stone Communications show Casey Cagle with an all-too-narrow lead in an unset field of potential Republican candidates who may vie to replace the retiring Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate.

The lieutenant governor edges out Rep. Phil Gingrey with 17 percent to 15 percent. Rep. Jack Kingston follows with 12 percent, edging out House colleagues Reps. Tom Price and Paul Broun, who clock in with 11 and 10 percent, respectively.

State Senator Ross Tolleson, who’s name recognition would be considerably lower coming out the gate, clocks in at fifth place with 2 percent support from those surveyed.

As was the case with recent polling data, ‘Undecided’ still rules the roost with 33 percent.

“If Lt. Governor Cagle decides to run he would initially lead the pack because he has statewide name recognition,” stated Landmark President Mark Rountree. “However we also found that, based on our poll question regarding of his job approval, voters don’t know as much about him beyond name recognition. That’s normal for a down ticket elected official.”

John Garst, who heads Rosetta Stone Communications, noted that Price leads the pack amongst Metro Atlanta voters, though the media release did not specify by what margin.

Following initial reports that he had put a poll in the field to test his viability, Cagle’s camp has been virtually silent on whether or not he intended to launch a bid for the open seat.

The lieutenant governor himself recently told the AJC that his focus was on the current session of the Georgia General Assembly, saying that his plate is “full right now.”

To date, Rep. Paul Broun remains the only formally announced candidate in the still-developing primary field.

Multiple outlets recently reported that Gingrey is set on mounting a statewide campaign and Kingston told a gathering of Forsyth County Republicans that his intentions were to pursue the seat, though he stopped short of a formal announcement.

Price, who was an oft-rumored potential primary opponent for Chambliss, was expected to be one of the first announced candidates but has opted to instead delay his decision until May.

-Brandon Howell

Multiple reports indicate that Congressman Phil Gingrey is set to enter the race for the open Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Saxby Chambliss.

“Two strategists with knowledge of Gingrey’s plans on Thursday told The Washington Post the congressman is, for all intents and purposes, a candidate for Senate,” read the report from the Post.

That news came hours after a separate piece from The Hill indicated as much. Tom Perdue, a Georgia consultant who has long been a part of Senator Chambliss’s inner circle, told The Hill that Gingrey was making the rounds on phone calls, “telling them he’s going to run and his staff is telling people he’ll probably make his announcement sometime next week.”

His entry would make him the second official candidate in the contest, following Rep. Paul Broun.

Rep. Jack Kingston told a gathering of Forsyth County Republicans last Saturday that his plans are to pursue the seat, but no official announcement has been made.

Ethan Underwood, who chairs the Forsyth County GOP, later told Tipsheet that “Rep. Kingston said he is not officially announcing his candidacy, but that he plans to seek the Republican nomination.”

Gingrey spokeswoman Jen Talaber pushed back on the assertion that her boss is 100 percent set on seeking Chambliss’s seat.

“I spoke with Phil and he hasn’t sent any email indicating a Senate run, so I’m not sure what all of this is about,” she told The Hill.

Perhaps of note is the fact that Gingrey spoke to the University of Georgia’s College Republicans chapter on Wednesday, far removed from his district. Though nowhere near the site for making an official announcement, the hotbed of conservative activism is a likely stop for any would-be candidate looking to recruit volunteers.

-Brandon Howell

The latest numbers in the still-forming GOP primary contest to replace Saxby Chambliss, released today by Public Policy Polling (PPP), show Rep. Jack Kingston tied with former Secretary of State Karen Handel at 15 percent. Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle is just behind with 13 percent, followed by Reps. Phil Gingrey at 12, Paul Broun at 11, Tom Price at 10 and Tom Graves at 3.

Undecided leads the field with 20 percent.

Broun remains the only formally announced entrant, with Kingston having stated he intends to pursue the seat yet stopping short of an official announcement last Saturday.

Tom Price, once thought of as an all but certain entrant into the field, recently announced that he would be delaying a decision until May. The move has prompted some quarters to question whether or not he still intends to mount a bid.

After word initially spread that his camp had put a poll in the field to test his viability in the contest, Cagle has largely been silent on any potential interest in replacing Chambliss, saying his focus was on his role presiding over the state Senate. Gingrey has stated that he is taking a hard look at the contest, while Graves has express no interest in moving to a statewide bid following his election to Congress in 2010.

Most also consider it unlikely that Handel and Price would find themselves in the same field. Without Handel in the field, PPP’s poll showed that Phil Gingrey would lead Kingston 24-18 percent, followed by 15 percent of respondents backing Broun and 14 percent choosing Price.

On the other hand, Handel would trail Gingrey by 1 percent, 22-21, with Kingston again at 18 percent and Broun at 14.

The survey of 602 Georgia voters and 366 GOP primary voters did not test hypothetical matchups in a Democratic primary. However, three names were tested against Republicans Price, Kingston, Gingrey, Broun and Handel.

Former Senator Max Cleland appears to be the most formidable in a General Election, “up 1 against Price, 3 against Kingston, 5 against Gingrey, and 7 against Broun and Handel.” He was defeated by the retiring Chambliss in 2002, but has given no indication that he intends to return to the public eye as a candidate for office.

Barrow would start out leading both Gingrey and Handel by a single percentage point whilst deadlocked with Broun and on the flip side of that single point against Price. In a duel of South Georgians, Barrow would trail Kingston by 3 percentage points.

The Blue Dog congressman has previously stated that he has “no plans” to move to a statewide contest. His congressional seat has already been named as one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s top targets for 2014.

State Senator Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, would begin trailing any Republican opponent by an average of 3.8 percentage points, trailing Broun by just 2 and Kingston by a more substantial 6.

Carter, too, has given no indication that he plans to pursue the seat.

-Brandon Howell

Despite concerns that a bitterly contested primary could fracture the party, Georgia Republican Party leaders have indicated that they will make no effort to winnow a crowded field in the race for retiring Senator Saxby Chambliss’s seat.

“I’m not concerned about it. I think that the right people will emerge. The party won’t be playing favorites to anyone,” GOP head Sue Everhart told the AJC. She went on to say that an attempt at constraining the field isn’t “the Republican way.”

For his part, Governor Nathan Deal has forsworn his involvement in picking the party’s nominee, stating that the role of mediator/kingmaker is one he doesn’t “value” and that he wouldn’t “assume.”

Democrats, on the other hand, have indicated that their aim is to coalesce behind a single candidate in the coming weeks. Chairman Mike Berlon stated that the party’s “whole goal is to get behind one candidate and make sure we’re unified when we get into the election cycle.”

However, the point could be made that Peach State Democrats lack the luxury of a fluid field in the first place. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed has already forsworn a bid, and Blue Dog Rep. John Barrow has shown little to no overt interest in running statewide.

Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, is said to be actively mulling a bid.

Those statements followed the release of a survey put together by GOP firm Harper Polling at the end of last week, which showed a close race for the Republican nomination.

Rep. Paul Broun, the only announced candidate thus far, took 19 percent to fellow Reps. Phil Gingrey and Tom Price’s 18 and 17 percents, respectively. Rep. Jack Kingston, while stopping short of an official announcement, told a gathering of the Forsyth County GOP that he intended to pursue the nomination last Saturday, took 13 percent.

State Senator Ross Tolleson and Atlanta Dream co-owner Kelly Loeffler were also included in the group’s poll but received what Roll Call dubbed “negligible” support.

-Brandon Howell

One of the nation’s most prominent tea party groups has launched a political action committee and says it is weighing involvement in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary to ensure the nomination of a candidate more conservative than retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

The Tea Party Patriots, a Georgia-based nonprofit that represents some 3,000 local tea party groups across the country, announced Friday it had filed paperwork to launch an affiliated super PAC, the Tea Party Citizens Fund, to oppose “big spending politicians.”

The new super PAC may engage in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary, national coordinator Jenny Beth Martin said, if it believes a moderate candidate is poised to win the contest.

“They’re focused on getting organized in Georgia and making sure we get somebody who won’t go in and say we need to raise taxes, like we’ve had with Sen. Chambliss,” Martin told the Daily Caller.

But none of the potential GOP recruits are especially moderate and most have been explicitly supported by tea party groups in earlier intraparty bouts.

Rep. Paul Broun, an outspoken conservative with considerable support among grassroots activists, is the lone announced candidate in the race. But other Republicans still testing the waters also have legitimate claims to tea party support.

Dozens of tea party groups flooded the capitol switch board late last year in support of Rep. Tom Price’s bid to steer the House Republican Conference and a super majority Tea Party Patriot members enthusiastically pressured GOP leadership in 2010 to award Rep. Jack Kingston a plum appropriations chairmanship.

The burning question of who might earn the group’s support has already triggered some quiet sniping among congressional aides and donors already aligned with possible candidates, each spotlighting instances in which conservative activists have worked on their behalf.

“Our caucus is uniformly conservative, so what concerns me is the yardstick by which this pac will measure our candidates,” one senior Georgia Republican official told Tipsheet. “Just saying something crazy doesn’t make you any more conservative than the guy who knows to keep his mouth shut.”

He added that “the threat that a powerful tea party group might give its blessing to one of a host of conservative candidates makes it entirely possible the race will descend into a conservative pissing match.”

- James Richardson

Karen Handel’s frontrunner status in Georgia’s sixth congressional district Republican primary is predicated on a heap of uncertainty, primarily whether the incumbent yields the seat to higher ambition, but a new survey of likely GOP voters finds a strong appetite for a bid by the former secretary of state.

Rep. Tom Price, who currently holds the seat, had been widely expected to enter the primary contest to replace retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss, but soft-pedaled the speculation on Monday when he said no decision on the race would be made for several months.

If he were to resign his House seat to a promotion to the upper chamber, however, Handel would have a commanding lead in the race to replace him, according to new numbers by Republican polling firm Wenzel Strategies.

The survey–fielded earlier this month with a small sample, just 300–found Handel cruising to the nomination with 40 percent. Her closest potential rival, state Sen. Judson Hill, notched only 13 percent and another four possible candidates all registered below 5 points each.

More than a third of primary voters were uncertain who they would support should Price not seek reelection.

But local Republican operatives believe Handel’s close relationship with the incumbent–he was the lone member of the state’s GOP congressional delegation to endorse Handle over Gov. Nathan Deal–would attract unaligned voters.

“We’re all wondering whether Price has got cold feet, but with these numbers Karen won’t be far away with a kettle of hot water,” one GOP operative told Tipsheet.

- James Richardson

For the unforeseeable future, it’s the Paul Broun Show in Georgia.

The outspoken conservative announced last week he would campaign for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, but his entrance sparked no sudden movements from any of the host of other Republicans considering the race.

Public overtures by the party’s top possible recruits have become so subdued in the last week that one, Rep. Tom Price, said Monday he would not arrive at a final decision on the race until May, citing his responsibilities as vice chairman of the House Budget Committee.

In a lengthy statement, Price said his fundraising and internal polling revealed a “clear path to victory” but his immediate concentration was on the resolving the nation’s debt and deficit crisis.

“Too often, elected officials look toward the next rung on the ladder instead of the task at hand,” Price said. “In the weeks to come, by demonstrating effective leadership, I will be focused on fulfilling the job I was elected to do.”

He said a scramble to enter the nominating contest would be “distracting and unwise.”

“The election of Georgia’s next senator is 21 months away and there is plenty of time for campaigning,” he said. “To announce a decision prior to the completion of the work on the debt ceiling and critical fiscal policy in May 2013 would be distracting and unwise.”

Price was widely considered by state and national Republicans to be a virtual certainty in the race.

With the support of influential GOP figures, including the party’s most recent vice presidential nominee, and the second-largest war chest of any Republican in the state, he has the profile and constituency to spook other would-be contenders/

But Price has soft-pedaled the expectation he would run, triggering speculation among some Republican party donors he is casually withdrawing from contention altogether.

A well-placed Republican operative with knowledge of Price’s operation, however, said any reading the leaves some seventeen months from the primary election was wildly premature.

“Does raising $300,000 in less than two weeks sound like someone who’s withdrawing from contention?” the source, who asked to remain anonymous to speak candidly, asked. “I know it’s unusual, but could it be possibly that there is an individual who is actually committed to the job he has and will uphold the responsibilities he has in his current position before satiating potential political ambitions?”

- James Richardson

A bill to require the president to submit to Congress an estimated date by which the federal budget would be balanced sailed through the House of Representatives Wednesday with virtually unanimous support from the Republican caucus.

There was one GOP dissenter to the measure, introduced earlier this month by Georgia Rep. Tom Price, however: fellow Peach Stater lawmaker and newly-announced Senate hopeful Paul Broun, whose spokeswoman called the legislation “unconstitutional.”

Broun, who ranks among the House Republican conference’s most conservative members, jetted from Washington yesterday morning after the roll call to a press conference in Atlanta wherein he formally announced his intention to seek Georgia’s GOP Senate nomination.

His announcement-day opposition to a budget proposal proffered by a possible primary rival drew eyebrows among some Republicans back home in Georgia, but an aide denied the implication his vote was motived by politics.

“It’s something that he, as an original intent constitutionalist, doesn’t believe in,” Broun’s communications director, Meredith Griffanti, said by phone Thursday of the bill.

Campaign jockeying, she said, had “nothing to do with” Broun’s position on the bill, which the congressman believes is “frankly unconstitutional” for the mandate that the president take the lead on any matters related to the federal purse.

Price, the bill’s primary sponsor, has been openly considering a possible Senate bid in the weeks since Sen. Saxby Chambliss announced he would retire his seat next year, but indicated Wednesday he would not make a final determination about the race for some months.

- James Richardson

The decision by Rep. Paul Broun to formally pursue the Republican nomination for Senate has not affected the political calculus of Rep. Tom Price, another top Republican recruit considering the race, an aide said Wednesday.

Broun is poised to enter the GOP nomination contest Wednesday at a press conference scheduled midday in Atlanta, but Price will make a final determination about his own possible campaign “in the weeks to come,” his spokeswoman, Ellen Carmichael, said.

“Dr. Price is humbled by the tremendous support, encouragement and generosity he has received as he evaluates a run for the U.S. Senate,” Carmichael said in an email to Tipsheet. “At the same time, he takes seriously the calling of public service and plans to fulfill the duties entrusted to him as Vice Chairman of the Budget Committee, like passage of H.R. 444, the Require a PLAN Act.

“He’ll be fulfilling these responsibilities in the weeks to come while listening to Georgians about the future.”

Price has been openly exploring a campaign for the better part of a month now, but feels no urgency to enter a primary race to be decided more than seventeen months from now, Carmichael said.

“After prayerful deliberation, Dr. Price and his family will ultimately make the determination if he will run,” she said. “The factors involved in the Senate race are in his favor - organization, network, fundraising, base of support – but the decision is his alone.”

- James Richardson

A survey of Georgia’s thirteen-member congressional delegation found a majority of the state’s lawmakers own firearms, though the name of one Republican rumored to be considering a statewide bid was conspicuously absent from the slate of gun-toters.

Seven Republicans and two Democrats affirmed gun ownership in a survey of congressional lawmakers Tuesday by USA Today. Their names: Reps. Jack Kingston, Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, Lynn Westmoreland, Rob Woodall, Austin Scott, Doug Collins, John Barrow and Sanford Bishop.

Rep. David Scott was the lone Georgian to admit he did not own a firearm, but the offices of four others, two Republicans and two Democrats, were either unwilling or unable to give an account to the paper. Republican Reps. Tom Price, a likely contender for the Republican Senate nomination, and Tom Graves were among them.

In total, 208 lawmakers either refused to answer or did not respond to repeated inquiries by the paper. A response matrix did not identify which of the two categories into which Price and Graves fell, but the paper’s report said a number of Southern Republicans chaffed at the probing, “suggesting it was ‘irresponsible’ for reporters to ask the question.”

Price’s office did not immediately respond when asked if the Republican’s nonparticipation was deliberate, as was the case with other dixie GOPers, or an oversight.

- James Richardson